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[Chang, Y.J., C.L. Sun]

Crustaceans are a globally-distributed faunal group, found across all habitats in the world and the important fisheries resource for human. They are an ideal focal assemblage for assessment of the impacts of climatic change on their population dynamics. Using the pronghorn spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery in the eastern coast off Taiwan as an example, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) that is capable of describing the temperature-dependent life history processes and fishery practices of the spiny lobster. The results are published in the January issue of Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences in 2011. The developed model was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate changes on the estimation of mortality-based biological reference points for fisheries management. We demonstrate that there is a high risk of overexploitation in the long term if higher temperatures also induce extra mortality. An increase in the minimum size regulation is proposed as a good candidate measure to reduce the risk of overexploitation for pessimistically unfavorable environmental conditions.

Reference:
Chang, Y.J., Sun, C.L., Chen, Y., Zhang, Y., and Yeh, S.Z. 2011. Incorporating climate changes into population dynamic modelling: an individual-based modelling approach for lobster. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 68: 122-136